Simple Proof that Donetsk/Luganks Election Results and Crimea Resolution Results Were Fabricated

It's amazing how the authors and perpetrators of election fraud in the Donbass Region and Crimea failed to do some simple arithmetic that would have covered their tracks.

The following article (Google translations) performs a simple arithmetic analysis of election results and demonstrates that the numbers announced were doctored with an extremely high level of certainty.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Faillarionov.livejournal.com%2F751244.html

The basic argument is this. In the overwhelming majority of cases election results look something like this: 73.2647586% In other words, the percentage is some long, "dirty" number. If, however, the results are short and clean — 73.26% for instance — this is cause for concern.

What we see in the case of the elections and memorandum discussed in the article is clear evidence of doctored results — short, clean percentages with a very small probability of occurring under normal circumstances.

A De-escalation of the Ukraine-Russia Crisis?

Political analyst and former Putin aide Andrey Illarionov believes that a significant change of course has taken place in the Kremlin due to western military pressure. He compares it to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when the world stood on the threshold of nuclear war. Here is his analysis (here is a Google translate version in English).

Illarionov demonstrates point by point that Russia had been preparing for a major war up to April 26, but messages coming from Moscow from April 28 onward have had an markedly different flavor. What happened in the 48 hours between the evening of the 26th and the 28th?

A partial answer can be found in press releases from the Russian and American Defense Ministries published on April 28. The press releases speak of an hour-long conversation between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. I'll translate Illarionov's summary and conclusion (points 19-21).

19. A brief summary of the documents cited above:
"In view of the Russian army concentration on the Russian-Ukrainian border and the presence of clear signs of its readiness to invade continental Ukraine at any moment, the U.S. administration temporarily stopped trying to persuade its Moscow counterpart, as it had been doing the previous two months, and began speaking a language the Kremlin could understand. In the language of the Russian Defense Ministry's press release the signal is described as follows: "The Russian Minister described the increased activity of US and NATO armed forces at Russian borders in Eastern Europe as unprecedented." In the language of the US Defense Ministry the signal that was sent is described in this way: "Hagel emphasized to his Russian counterpart how dangerous the situation in Ukraine remains and that Shoygu "reiterated his assurance that Russian forces would not invade." Sec. Hagel also repeated his call for an end to Russia's destabilizing influence inside Ukraine and warned that continued aggression would further isolate Russia and result in more diplomatic and economic pressure." 

Thus, it can be stated that the unprecedented increased activity of US and NATO armed forces at Russian borders in Eastern Europe, together with diplomatic and economic pressure averted the invasion of Ukraine by Russian army forces and halted the continually increasing momentum of a new war in Europe. 

20. In other words, on April 26-28, 2014, the US administration and armed forces began to take measures apparently similar to those taken by the US administration and armed forces on August 11-12, 2008, which halted the Russian army offensive towards Tbilisi and led to a cease-fire in the Russian-Georgian war. 

21. If the US administration and armed forces together with the government of Ukraine had begun to take measures not on April 26-28, 2014, but exactly two months earlier, on February 26-28, then the Russian-Ukrainian war would have been halted at its very earliest stages, Ukrainian Crimea would not have been occupied and illegally annexed by Russia, a multitude of documents of international law would not have been violated, the system of international relations and global security which had been taken seven decades since WWII to create through the efforts of hundreds of nations at the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars would not have been destroyed, and dozens, if not hundreds, of people would not have lost their lives.

What remains to be seen now is whether the de-escalation is just a tactical retreat or a long-term change of course.

Developments in Ukraine

Finally some fundamental reforms in Ukraine?
The new government has to cut expenditures by about 17% to avoid default. They are embarking on some serious budget cuts, and the time seems right to make some big reforms in government bureaucracy and management as well. My sense is that the new political environment is very favorable for making systemic changes similar to those undertaken in Georgia by Saakashvili's government in 2004-2005.

Post-Yanukovich discoveries and developments

Journalists and specialists are currently going through masses of documents discovered at Yanukovich's private estate and have created a website in Ukrainian and English called "Yanukovichleaks" to document what they've discovered. I think this process is very important for a society-wide examination of the past to take place.

Dizzying pace of events in Crimea

Crimea is set to hold a referendum on March 16 on whether or not to join the Russian Federation. One can never be sure, but it is almost certain that by the end of March Crimea will be warmly accepted into Russia by the Duma. A description of Russia's tactics in Crimea can be read here. 

A look into the world of Putin and his relations with the West

I found this article very insightful and think it could be spot-on. To understand what is going on in Ukraine, you need to know a bit of the history of Putin's disillusionment with the West. Many articles written in the West have too simplistic a view of the situation in Ukraine/Russia. I've linked to articles here that I believe are closer to the truth.

Ukrainians increasingly coming together 
I can't remember ever seeing so much initiative-taking in Ukraine. All the external pressure and instability, the successful overthrow of a corrupt autocratic government, have really empowered Ukrainians with patriotic feelings and given them a sense of mission. 

Two Months in Sevastopol, Crimea

In a recent post I mentioned that I had just moved to Sevastopol. Here's a report on my two months there.

1. House

Several thousand dollars was spent on completing basic construction of the house, making it liveable for year-round use. Almost all this money went to a work brigade that we have been very satisfied with. The workers don't drink and do their job well, and the foreman accounts for all money spent and comes around periodically to take a look, give instructions to the workers, and collect money.

Conditions in the house are still very spartan, but there is now a functional kitchen (small water tank, sink with drain into bucket, electric stove, samovar, fridge, countertop) and shower/bath (80 liter washbin behind a curtain where you can pour water over yourself). One does have to carry water around a lot, but the inconvenience is relatively minor. It's liveable. There are two electrical heaters that provide adequate heating for winter.

It is refreshing to live on your own land after being in the city for so long. And it's not decorative landscaping like modern suburban dwellings, but an actual plot of land with natural soil where useful things grow or can be grown. It's nice to walk out at night and see the pitch black sky, to sleep in total silence, and to wake up in the morning and walk around the lot to see what's going on.

2. City

Transportation to the city from the dacha turned out to be adequate and even somewhat better than expected. On the way into town you can just hail down a car and get in for the same price as a bus. On average it takes about 35 minutes to get to the center. This is better than most places around Kiev. Buses are not as full and I almost always get a seat. Buses run from 6:30 to 20:30 and have a semi-predictable schedule. Many evenings I end up returning on the last bus, which is convenient because it leaves at a set time. On rare instances I have taken a taxi to get home.

Interestingly, Sevastopol is the only place I know in Ukraine where they say "topik" instead of "marshrutka" (minibus) and passengers pay the fare as they exit. In fact, people often get off through the back door and walk up to the front door to pass fare to the driver as they leave.

Sevastopol has a lot less going on than Kiev, but I have met a number of interesting people and am looking forward to meeting more. Our Spanish club has also been successful, with 5 regulars.

3. Other benefits

How about fresh goat's milk and homemade dairy products? Some berries can be collected in the vicinity. For the first time in a long time I've been eating quite a bit of local produce.

4. Beach

The local beach is awesome. Predictably, I ended up not getting out there as often as predicted — only about once a week. But still... The water is now quite cold (10 C), but there are people who swim in it year-round, which supposedly boosts the immune system and provides other benefits. The 170-meter drop down to the beach provides an excellent workout.

There is also an archaeological dig 10 minutes away that I still haven't gotten around to looking at.

5. Hiking

With the "5th Kilometer" bus station nearby, there are a lot of options for getting into the hills and doing some hiking. I've been on 4 day hikes in 2 months, which isn't much, but I was tied down by the ongoing construction for much of the period. Here are some pictures.

Moving to Sevastopol

Who would've thought that after 9 years in Kiev I would move to another city in Ukraine? I like Kiev and have a myriad of activities, friends, and contacts there to keep my busy. But for the past several years I have felt that Kiev is not a place I would like to settle long term. It is too big, too polluted, too far from any mountains or other areas of outstanding natural beauty, and the real estate is too costly for me to realistically buy anything decent in the foreseeable future.

The realization that I would not be able to stay in Ukraine long-term anyway because of the immigration restrictions led me to begin thinking about spending more time elsewhere. Just a week later, I began planning my move to Sevastopol, Crimea. Here I will also be subject to the 90/180 rule, but there are big advantages here for me. I can live at my own dacha, carefully chosen in a convenient location just outside the city.

Dacha plots are not available for purchase by foreign citizens unless they have been privatized. Privatized plots cost quite a bit more. 6 or 7 years ago a Ukrainian friend and I bought an unprivatized plot together on her name and began the privatization process, which is standard and can be arranged for a set fee so that the owners just pay and forget about it. A year or so later, the process was completed.

I am a geographer (by nature, if not yet by profession), and I understand that location is everything. Here are the criteria we considered when choosing the plot:

• close to bus stops where city buses run
• walking distance to an awesome beach (arguably the most scenic in the region)
• at least a few neighbors live at their dacha year-round
• some investment in construction is taking place in the vicinity
• electricity and water
• not too close to the water that seaspray would suppress plant growth

Furthermore, because Crimean cities are small, it is realistic to live at a dacha just outside the city and enjoy the benefits of city life while living in a more tranquil location. In Kiev this is basically impossible due to the large size of the city.

Crimea has tons of scenic variety — sea, mountains, cities, historical sites, etc. — plus great numbers of tourists from all over Ukraine and the former USSR. Many places in Crimea attract interesting types of people — artists, scientists, wanderers, adherents of various teachings, etc.

I have long felt that this might be the best place for me within Ukraine in terms of lifestyle. Until a few years ago I was basically tied down to Kiev because of work, but now I can work from anywhere if I have Internet.

In the past year a modest house has been built on the dacha plot, and at the moment some relatives of my friend are installing the electrical wiring. Within a month this place will be quite liveable, albeit with primitive "facilities."

Now I am beginning to establish a social life in Sevastopol and Crimea. I already have some acquaintances here, and I've established a Spanish conversation club in town. All Spanish speakers are invited, particularly natives. My daily routine includes a hike down to the spectacular "Jasper Beach," with nearly 800 steps leading down a 170 m high slope to the secluded beach below (see some photos here). It's just a short bus ride away to a kind of avtovokzal (bus station) where one can take buses to destinations in the hills to the east where all the good hiking begins. From the dacha to the center of Sevastopol it's typically about a 40 minute trip, which is average for living in Kiev. But here I breathe fresh air and live in my own house.

The plot cost $4500 USD, as much as $12-15k will be invested total in the house and landscaping, the rent is nonexistent, and utilities amount to about $10 a month.

Getting Around in Ukraine When Traveling

I've done a ton of traveling around Ukraine and am pretty used to the transportation "system." It is so counter-intuitive and hard to master for Americans, and yet so beautifully effective at getting you where you need to go in the most efficient way possible.

Let me describe the transportation legs of a recent trip to Crimea.

1. Home to train station (in Kiev)

Took minibus ("marshrutka" or маршрутка) to a metro station, then took the metro (subway, underground, U-bahn...) to the train station. Total time: 40 min. from apartment door. Cost = 3.70 UAH, or nearly $0.50 USD.

2. Kiev to Bakhchisaray

Overnight train, 3rd class ("platzkart" or плацкарт). Time: 16 hours. Cost = roughly 120 UAH, or $15 USD.

3. Bakhchisaray to Sokolinoe

We hopped out of the train to see what transportation was available at 5 am. I was expecting a different bus, but we quickly altered our hiking route to take advantage of the bus that was there that was leaving soon. Time: ~ 30 min. Cost = 8 UAH, or $1 USD.

From here we hiked through the mountains, enjoying scenery like this:

4. Road near Foros to Yalta

After descending to the road, we asked to find out which direction the nearest bus stop was, walked there, and began stopping any public transportation heading to Yalta. 3 minibuses passed by that were full before a large bus stopped to pick us up. A local lady at the bus stop told us this bus was coming "around 1 pm." Before that I had just about decided to start hailing cars and get a hitch, which might have cost up to 50 UAH after some haggling. We had to stand in the aisle of the bus until some people got out and freed up their seats. Time: ~ 45 min. Cost = 12 UAH, or $1.50 USD.

5. Yalta to Luchistoe turn-off (near Angarskyy Pass)

First we went to the Trolleybus station, but I didn't like that they took so long to get to the pass, so we walked up to a nearby minibus that was filling up with people. I asked if it was going to Simferopol. The driver said no and pointed me across the street. There we waited a minute until a minibus backed in. It wasn't going where we wanted, but someone pointed us to the bus station where a bus was supposedly just about to leave. We ran 50 meters and got the last seats before it filled up and left. I asked the driver to stop at the turn-off to Luchistoe. He asked me to remind him when we got close. The price of 20 UAH ($2.50 USD) for this minibus was standard regardless of destination. Time: ~45 min.

From here we hiked through more mountains, enjoying scenery like this:

6. Generalskoe to Solnechnogorskoe

We got to the small settlement of Generalskoe 40 minutes after one of just 2 or 3 daily buses had left. We started walking down the road till we got to the place with taxis and jeeps for tourists who want to visit the nearby Dzhur-Dzhur waterfall. I waved my hand at the price of 50 UAH a driver offered to take us to Solnechnogorskoe, just 7 or 8 km away (I was prepared to pay 10-20 UAH for a ride with a car already going in that direction). So we walked it and enjoyed the views and the quiet road.

7. Solnechnogorskoe to Alushta

Here we stopped to hang out at the beach for a couple hours, then walked up the road to enjoy some tasty, but fatty Uzbek cuisine for 80 UAH ($10 USD) for two people. Along the way I enquired about buses to get that issue out of the way. They said they drove by every 20 minutes or so. After our dinner we went to the bus stop and ended up getting in a minibus to Alushta, although we really needed to get to Simferopol -- further down the road. Time: ~ 45 minutes. Cost: ~12 UAH ($1.50 USD).

8. Alushta to Simferopol

We were let out at the Alushta bus station. Somewhere nearby was the trolleybus station, but I decided to enquire about buses first. After waiting a few minutes in line, I found out that the next few buses were already all sold out, so we would miss our train if we didn't find another option. So I did what you do in Ukraine -- approach a bus driver directly. I asked him if he had "standing spots" available (стоячие места). He asked how many of us there were. "Two," I replied. Turns out he had one seat free, so one of us got to sit and hold the backpacks. Officially this bus had no seats left. I paid the bus driver directly. We left just a few minutes after getting on the bus. Time: ~ 1:15. Cost: 25 UAH ($3 USD).

9. Simferopol to Kiev

Overnight train. See above.

10. Kiev train station to apartment

Metro + minibus. See above.

Total cost: roughly $40 USD.